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Author Topic: Election Day 2009
Date Posted: 11/3 5:47am Subject: Election Day 2009
Yes, it is an off year election, but there are still important gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. In the 2008 Obama state of Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell is well ahead of Democrat Creigh Deeds. In New Jersey, the race between incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine and Republican Chris Christie is too close to call.

Political pundits are already saying that the outcome of some of the races could be a referendum on the Obama administration. Obama has campaigned hard for both Deeds and Corzine. The media is also trying to make this year's election more exciting than it really is.

Here's an article:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091103/ap_on_el_st_lo/us_election_rdp

Races an early test of Obama influence

By LIZ SIDOTI, AP National Political Writer Liz Sidoti, Ap National Political Writer – 49 mins ago

WASHINGTON – In a very early test of President Barack Obama's political influence, two states are choosing whether to continue Democratic rule while voters elsewhere elect a handful of congressmen and big-city mayors.

Elected just a year ago, the president has spent a considerable amount of time and energy trying to ensure that Democrats win governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey and pick up a GOP-held congressional seat in upstate New York.

In doing so, Obama raised the stakes of a low-enthusiasm off-year election season — and risked political embarrassment if any lost.

All three could.

Heading into Tuesday's elections, Democrat gubernatorial candidate R. Creigh Deeds was trailing Republican Bob McDonnell in polls by double digits in Virginia. In a three-way race in New Jersey, Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine was in a close race with Republican Chris Christie and independent Chris Daggett. And in the race to fill the vacant 23rd Congressional District seat in New York, Democrat Bill Owens was in a tight fight with conservative Doug Hoffman after the GOP's hand-picked candidate bowed out over the weekend.

Elsewhere, California Lt. Gov. John Garamendi is expected to maintain the Democratic Party's hold on the open 10th Congressional District seat near San Francisco, while New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is expected to cruise to a third term. Atlanta, Houston, Boston, Detroit and Pittsburgh also will elect mayors, while voters in Maine and Washington weigh in on same-sex unions and voters in Ohio decide whether to allow casinos.

To be sure, it's easy to overanalyze the results of such a small number of elections in a few places. The results will only offer hints about the national political landscape and clues to the public's attitudes. And the races certainly won't predict what will happen in the 2010 midterm elections.

"The results of these elections tend to be overread," former Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said Tuesday on NBC's "Today." "These are local races. There's 18,000 lifetimes between now and next November."

But, given that Democrats control the White House and Congress, defeats in Virginia — a new swing state in national elections — or New Jersey — a Democratic stronghold — would be setbacks for the White House, even though both states having long histories of electing governors from a political party opposite that of the president.

After all, this is a president who won a year ago in an electoral landslide after building a fundraising and organizational juggernaut that attracted scores of new voters into what Obama loyalists have called a movement. And this is a party that has comfortable majorities in the House and Senate — and that controls governor's mansions in Virginia and New Jersey.

As the Democratic Party chief, Obama had little choice but to work hard to elect Corzine and Deeds; doing otherwise would have been seen by the base as a breach of duty.

So, he campaigned several times for Corzine and raised money for Deeds. Obama also was featured in campaign advertisements for both. He characterized the success of their candidacies as key components for the White House to make good on its political promises and advance its agenda. And he deployed the Democratic National Committee and his own political campaign arm, Organizing for America, to ensure the swarms of new voters he attracted in 2008 turn out even if he's not on the ballot.

Of the two races, a Republican victory in Virginia would be the most telling about potential trouble ahead for Democrats as they compete in swing states next fall.

Long reliably Republican in national races, Virginia is a new swing state. It's home to a slew of northern bellwether counties filled with swing-voting independents who carried Obama to victory last fall, the first Democrat to win the state in a White House race since 1964. Rapidly growing counties like Loudoun and Prince William swung toward Democrats in the 2005 governor's race, previewing an Obama win three years later.

Conversely, New Jersey is a traditional Democratic-leaning state with an incumbent Democratic governor. As such, it's the trickier of the two for Republicans to win — and yet the GOP just might.


I think the outcome in New Jersey has little to do with Obama. If Corzine loses in a deep Blue State, it doesn't say that Obama is a bad President, it says that Corzine had been a bad governor.

 

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Date Posted: 11/3 6:03am Subject: Election Day 2009
Americans voting the lesser party to end a supermajority pushing for controversial hot-button issues?

Geez, even Helen Keller could have seen this coming.

 

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 Date Posted: 11/3 6:29am Subject: Election Day 2009 - Date Edited: 11/3 6:29am (1 edits total) Edited By: KnightWriter
Let the right ring nutroots get all the attention today and think that they're on a path to success. It'll just set them up for a hard fall either next year, or more likely, in 2012.

Obama has not campaigned much for Deeds, by the way. They know he's a lost cause and have not put much effort into his campaign. They've worked hard for Corzine, however.

Anyone trying to read the tea leaves of the public's view of Obama off just a few elections is misguided at best, and will be going off a highly limited sample. The real test won't be until 2010, and I expect Democrats to do better than expected next year. For now, I'm fine with the Palin-Beck-Limbaugh worshippers getting the attention and success. They have no realistic future as a governing faction.

 

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Date Posted: 11/3 6:34am Subject: Election Day 2009
I'm not gonna vote for Emperor Bloomberg (R): I hope the margin is closer than expected so the billionaire tyrant sweats a bit. City Comptroller Bill Thompson (D) ran a pretty uninspiring campaign outside of a mild endorsement from the President.

 

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Date Posted: 11/3 6:44am Subject: Election Day 2009 - Date Edited: 11/3 6:46am (1 edits total) Edited By: DarthLassic007
I forgot to mention that Maine is voting on whether to keep or overturn same-sex marriage. Both the pro same-sex marriage and anti same-sex marriage groups have received out of state money to help their cause.

 

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Date Posted: 11/3 1:26pm Subject: Election Day 2009 - Date Edited: 11/3 1:30pm (1 edits total) Edited By: Game3525
Eh, would it be nice to win both VA and NJ, yes. But really VA is still quite conservative and NJ is fed up with the corruption under Corzine, so I wouldn't be surprise to see the GOP sweep. The best bet for the the White House is to win NJ, and lose VA.

 

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Date Posted: 11/3 1:48pm Subject: Election Day 2009
Game3525 posted:
Eh, would it be nice to win both VA and NJ, yes. But really VA is still quite conservative and NJ is fed up with the corruption under Corzine, so I wouldn't be surprise to see the GOP sweep. The best bet for the the White House is to win NJ, and lose VA.


Not only corruption, but also the amount in tax increases Corzine has placed on the state. Not to mention that the unemployment rate in New Jersey is over 10%.

But Corzine still has a chance. The independent third party candidate, Chris Daggett, who takes votes away from Christie, was polling as high as 14%, yesterday.

 

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Date Posted: 11/3 1:50pm Subject: Election Day 2009
DarthLassic007 posted:
Game3525 posted:
Eh, would it be nice to win both VA and NJ, yes. But really VA is still quite conservative and NJ is fed up with the corruption under Corzine, so I wouldn't be surprise to see the GOP sweep. The best bet for the the White House is to win NJ, and lose VA.


Not only corruption, but also the amount in tax increases Corzine has placed on the state. Not to mention that the unemployment rate in New Jersey is over 10%.

But Corzine still has a chance. The independent third party candidate, Chris Daggett, who takes votes away from Christie, was polling as high as 14%, yesterday.


True, Christie isn't really a strong candidate, I think Corzine will still win, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he loses.

 

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Date Posted: 11/3 1:53pm Subject: Election Day 2009
On our way to AC last Friday, we wound up next to Christie's campaign bus on the Jersey turnpike. I wonder if they heard our "JOHN-NY COR-ZINE!" chants.

 

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Date Posted: 11/3 2:23pm Subject: Election Day 2009
Game3525 posted:
The best bet for the the White House is to win NJ, and lose VA.


True. But I bet the White House would rather win Virginia and lose New Jersey. Obama is linked more to Virginia than he is New Jersey.

If Corzine wins New Jersey it will be seen more like Corzine won not because of Obama, but because New Jersey is a die hard Blue State. But if Deeds some how wins Virginia, that would be seen that Deeds won because of Obama's influence.

Likewise, if Corzine loses, it would be seen more like Corzine losing because of corruption, high taxes, and high unemployment, not Obama. But if Deeds loses, it would be seen more as a referendum on Obama's policies.

 

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Date Posted: 11/3 2:30pm Subject: Election Day 2009 - Date Edited: 11/3 2:34pm (1 edits total) Edited By: Game3525
DarthLassic007 posted:
Game3525 posted:
The best bet for the the White House is to win NJ, and lose VA.


True. But I bet the White House would rather win Virginia and lose New Jersey. Obama is linked more to Virginia than he is New Jersey.

If Corzine wins New Jersey it will be seen more like Corzine won not because of Obama, but because New Jersey is a die hard Blue State. But if Deeds some how wins Virginia, that would be seen that Deeds won because of Obama's influence.

Likewise, if Corzine loses, it would be seen more like Corzine losing because of corruption, high taxes, and high unemployment, not Obama. But if Deeds loses, it would be seen more as a referendum on Obama's policies.


Not really, VA is quite conservative and Deeds is really a dweeb that no one really cares about, if someone like Warner or Kaine had been able to run again, VA would have gone to the Democrats easily. Overall, Deed wasn't a strong candiate and couldn't get the base the liberal base here engerize.

 

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Date Posted: 11/3 3:21pm Subject: Election Day 2009
I thought it was interesting, in light of the upcoming elections, that CNN was airing a piece today on the anniversary of Obama's victory.

Perhaps such a piece would remind people to get out there and vote--build some nostalgia for the Democrat voters perhaps?

"Remember the day we elected our great leader! To victorrrrrrrrrrrrry!"

 

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 Date Posted: 11/3 3:43pm Subject: Election Day 2009
I figured the New Zealand elections might be more interesting this year. What say you, JP?

 

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Date Posted: 11/3 5:00pm Subject: Election Day 2009
Just got back from voting for New York mayor. I voted Thompson, more of a vote against Bloomberg than for Thompson anyway.

 

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Date Posted: 11/3 5:01pm Subject: Election Day 2009
Let Limbaugh and Palin speak all they like. Let them think this is a victory for them. The more they talk the more people will see them as the extremeists they are.

 

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 Date Posted: 11/3 5:11pm Subject: Election Day 2009
Drac39 posted:
Let Limbaugh and Palin speak all they like. Let them think this is a victory for them. The more they talk the more people will see them as the extremeists they are.

Yeah, nothing brands people as extremists like winning elections.

 
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